Gambling on Sports
Our analysts anticipate that both Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will continue to struggle in the upcoming season. Kyler Murray, the quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, is currently averaging the fewest adjusted net yards per attempt of his career.
The Arizona Cardinals, who made the playoffs the previous season, currently have a record of 2-4. The New Orleans Saints, who have now finished each of the last five seasons with a winning record, also have a record of 2-4. In August, this matchup may have looked promising on paper, but as Week 7 of the NFL season gets underway, it appears to be uninspiring.
The Saints are coming into this game on short rest, which is especially detrimental to an injured team. The Saints are limping into this contest. New Orleans will be without wide receivers Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), and tight end Adam Trautman (ankle), as well as cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Wide receiver Chris Olave is expected to return from a concussion, but the team will be without Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas (abdomen).
As a result of the chest or pectoral injury guard Andrus Peat sustained the previous week, the offensive line will also undergo shuffling. Peat’s recovery time is uncertain at this point. Even though the market has tightened up a bit, it makes sense that the Cardinals are a slight favorite for Thursday night’s game. The opening line for this game had Arizona as a three-point favorite, but it has since moved down to a 2.5-point favorite, and one reputable sportsbook, Bookmaker, is now offering Arizona as a -2 underdog.
The total is currently at 44, which is a slight decrease from the 45 or 44.5 totals that were predicted before the game began on Sunday. Despite this, my money is on the Saints to win. The New Orleans Saints have a plus-4 percent net success rate, the percentage of series that either score a touchdown or earn a new set of downs, whereas the Arizona Cardinals have a minus-4 percent success rate.
The Cardinals have also benefited from turnovers, which they will not be able to count on in the future. According to TruMedia, the Cardinals are scoring almost seven fewer points per game than was predicted for them based on the down, distance, and field position of each play. This was determined after accounting for this factor.
After accounting for the number of times they have turned the ball over, the Saints are averaging almost five additional points per game in their scoring. And that includes games with injury concerns that are comparable to those that New Orleans will face on Thursday. Here are some of our other recommendations for every Thursday night.
Neil Greenberg’s bet
Kyler Murray, under 246½ passing yards
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Murray, who was once Arizona’s electrifying quarterback, has struggled mightily this season. An updated version of passer rating, his adjusted net yards per attempt is at a career low of 4.9, while the average for the league is 5.9 yards per attempt.
His rate of big-time throws, which are defined as passes with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown farther down the field and/or into a tighter window, is also at a career low and is nearly one-fourth the rate of his breakout season in 2021, according to the game charters at Pro Football Focus, who rank him 22nd out of 29 qualified passers. On the other hand, his rate of throws that could potentially result in a turnover is at a career high.
It is true that Murray will get back his top target DeAndre Hopkins on Thursday after Hopkins served a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances, but it is difficult to count on a wide receiver playing for the first time since December. Hopkins was suspended for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.
If anything, I could see Arizona’s offense attempting to force the ball to be passed to Hopkins, which might lead to a decline in performance rather than an improvement. According to Per Football Focus, Murray has the sixth-worst passer rating in the league when pressure is brought on him from the rush.
One of the highest blitzing percentages in the NFL is being posted by the Saints when they are attacking the quarterback. The narrative will pick up below the advertisement.
Matt Bonesteel’s bets
Saints first-quarter moneyline +110
First half under 21 points
The Cardinals have been absolutely terrible in the first quarter, scoring an NFL-worst 0.5 points on average in the opening 15 minutes of games. This ranks the Cardinals dead last among all NFL teams by a significant margin. In the first quarter of each of their games, they have managed to score a total of three points, all of which came from a field goal in their most recent matchup against the Seahawks.
As was mentioned above, the Saints’ offense is expected to be something of a mess because of the injuries that have occurred. The New Orleans defense has not exactly been able to keep opponents from getting points on the board early in games, as they have surrendered an average of 5.7 points in the first quarter (ranking them 28th in the league) and 12.5 points in the first half (21st).
But until the Cardinals show signs that they can get going early — they also rank last in first-half scoring, also by a significant margin — I’m going to fade them in the first quarter and take the under on the first-half total as well. This is because they also rank last in scoring in the first half.
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